Choosing your post flop statistics
2012.02.14
In my previous articles I’ve mainly focused on useful preflop statistics since that’s a good starting point. In this article I will explain how a few common and useful post flop statistics can help you get better reads on your opponents.
I’d like to mention right away that there isn’t a clear-cut answer as to which statistics you should use post flop since this largely depends on which situations you consider to be the most problematic once you’ve moved on from the preflop stage of a hand. Just to expand a little bit on that: let’s say you get very confused when you get check raised on the turn, then adding Check Raised Turn % will help you decide if your opponent is bluffing or not when check raising you. Also note that you should generally have a big sample size of hands on a player for the post flop statistics to be very meaningful.
Common post flop statistics
Below I will list a few commonly used post flop statistics and explain how they’re calculated and how you should use them correctly.
Aggression Factor
Aggression factor measures how aggressive a player is and the stat is calculated like this: (times bet + times raised) / (times called). What this means is that a player with an aggression factor of 2 bets and raises twice as often as calling.
Showdowns Won %
This stat shows how often a player wins money when taking a hand all the way to showdown. What you will be able to figure out by looking at this stat is how a player value hands; a player with a low Showdowns Won % stat calls down light, while a player with a high % usually needs a decent holding to call down. Below you will find a table explaining what different percentages mean:
| % Value | Player type |
| Below 40 | This type of player over value hands and calls too often – be sure to exploit this by value betting multiple streets very often when having any type of decent hand. |
| Between 40 – 48 | This type of player is similar to the above one and calls too often. |
| Between 48 – 54 | This is where you will find most of the good players, if this type of player goes to showdown a decent holding is to be expected. |
| Above 54 | In this spectrum you will find the weak players that almost always have strong hands when going all the way to a showdown. |
Showdowns When Saw Flop %
As indicated by the name, this stat shows how often a player goes to showdown after seeing the flop. Below you will find a table explaining what different percentages mean:
| % Value | Player type |
| Below 20 | This type of player tends to be of the weaker type and only goes to showdown if holding a strong hand. Usually it’s possible to get a player such as this one to fold mediocre top pair hands and worse before the river. Choose your river bluffs wisely vs. this kind of player since a strong holding is to be expected. |
| Between 20 – 30 | Within this range you will tend to find most tight aggressive players. The low end are likely weaker players that can be bluffed, while the higher end tends to be players who bets for value with weaker hands and continuation bets both the flop and the turn. |
| Above 30 | This is where you will find the loose players that tend to over value their hands. What this means is that you will need to call this type of player down more often and also value bet against them more often. |
Using multiple stats in conjunction
So, does an Aggression Factor of 3 always mean the same? The answer to this question is yes and no, while it always means that a player bets and raises three times as often as calling, it says different things depending on the looseness or tightness of a player. As an example I will use three imaginary players with imaginary stats:
- Player A
Player A has an Aggression Factor of 3, a VPIP% of 20, a Showdowns When Saw Flop% of 20 and a Showdowns Won% of 60. Looking at this player’s statistics, we know that while he’s tight and has a high Aggression Factor he’s rarely going to showdown and when doing so wins at a very high rate. With all this in mind, we know that this is a player that generally has a very strong hand when going all the way to a showdown and that we can often get this player to fold before showdown by betting.
- Player B
Player B has an Aggression Factor of 3, a VPIP% of 40, and a Showdowns When Saw Flop% of 33. While this player has the same Aggression Factor as Player A, he’s playing twice as loose, meaning that he’s being as aggressive but being so with much worse hands. He’s also going to showdown very often with these bad hands. To summarize, it’s safe to say that this player bluffs very often and that you should call down light.
- Player C
This is another tight aggressive player with an Aggression Factor of 3, a VPIP% of 24, a Showdowns When Saw Flop% of 28 and a Showdowns Won% of 50. What we know when looking at this player’s statistics is that he’s going to showdown more often than Player A but he’s not winning as often when doing so. What we now can assume is that this is a player that is continuation betting and semi bluffing more often than Player A since his aggression factor is staying as high although he’s going to showdown more often.
After looking at these three players we have learned that it’s important to look at several different stats to correctly decide what kind of player you’re facing: all of the players in the example had the same Aggression Factor but all of them play significantly different.