All-in Results vs Expectation
After busting out deep into a tournament with AA vs 22, I was cursing my luck. But there are obviously times where I win as a 4-1 dog that conveniently slip my mind when I get crippled just short of the big money.
An ‘All-in Result’ stat would be useful – something along the lines of if you get your money in as a 75% favourite and win, ‘All-in Result’ is +2.5 and if you lose it is -7.5. Or for a 52%-48% coinflip, you would get +4.8 if you win and -5.2 if you lose. Alternatively, if you get your money in as a 20%-80% underdog, then you get +8.0 if you win and -2.0 if you lose.
If you end up with a positive number then you have out-performed the odds and if you get negative you have underperformed against the odds. It may help distinguish between playing bad and running bad (or vice versa).
It doesn’t necessarily have to be only All-in situations either. It could just be pots over a certain size (say 5xBB) and is measured when at least 60% of the money goes in.
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