re: Is Poker Stars cheating ?

[Tell me more]

Originally Posted by SeanInt

Just wondering where you got the 3-1 odds of flopping an 8 out sd ? I found a site, forgot which one, that said odds of flopping an 8 outer with 2 connecting is 9.42 to 1.

Sean

You wrong Sean. Yeah you need 2 cards wich mean 8 outs, but in fact, 16 outs can help you, in 3 differend ways, let see...

With 45, you have 3 possibility to get Fourstraight on flop: 2 3, or 6 7 or 3 6...

A- 2 & 3 (8 outs)
B- 6 & 7 (+8 outs)
C- 3 & 6

C included same outs then A+B, true, but with 3 on flop, you need 2 or 6 (8 outs) to get your Fourstraight on this flop, same thing if 6 comes out, you'll need 3 or 7 (8 outs combined with 8 outs)

A+B+C = 2.8:1

With 45, real odds for Fourstraight for flop is 2.8:1 (i used 3:1 in last post just to simplify)

Note: Its not the same if you hold A2 (or AK), cause only 34 (or QJ) give you Fourstraight for flop (8outs), then your 9.42:1 odds should be good.
(With AK, you'r not really looking for straight from preflop and you'll probably die with A2, its just for explaination)

Your odds is reduced if you hold 23 (or KQ) for Fourstraight for flop cause you absolutly need 4 (or J)
A- A4 (or AJ) (8outs)
B- 45 (or 10J) (+4outs)
(I cant give you real odds here, am not a math guy, thats why i need PO, but you can see difference with my first example with 45)

In this exemple, you realise you really need 4 (or J), so it's 4 outs + 8 outs and not just 12 outs in 2 differents ways... You see mathematical subtility here? Those 4 outs isnt an advantage, its an handicap, cause you really need this card. Mathematical result (odds) will consider that

Now you know why some players hold 45 or 78 even with a huge raise preflop, it's not cause he dont respect that raise, it's just cause 2 looses players called that raise before him (3:1) He's not concern about amount of bet, but about odds, only.
Thats how you'r AA can easily been cracked if you have few looses players at your left and good player on button when you'r 1st to talk

We were able to see Fourstraight odds for flop for our hands in PO window before last bug ;(


Hope it help


*****


For 2008 on PS (at 0.1/0.2 table)

hand/time/won

AA 215 88%
KK 227 82%
QQ 220 65%
JJ 224 54%
1010 195 42%
99 231 33%
88 235 25%
77 228 28%
66 252 18%
55 229 18%
44 205 16%
33 242 15%
22 210 12%

Nothing suspicious here, and its little sample (50 000 hands)
50 000 x 0.5 / 100 = 250

I made profit with all of those hands, except 33 (-0.25 cents) and 22 (-0.28cents) RE_EDIT: 33 = 1.53$ profit now ^^

Note: I fold more 66 preflop than AA lol

[Fish 'n' Chips]

One simple point I would like to make here

I believe that a royal flush (statisticaly) occurs once in 650,000 hands !

Now try to take this on board.

On poker stars, at peak times there can be 200,000 + players playing at the same time.

At an average of 1 hand dealt per minute per table.

So that means every 3 and a bit minutes somewhere on stars a royal flush is dealt out (statisticaly).

If something as rare as a royal flush is occurring that frequently, just how frequently do you think the bad beats / suckouts are going to happen ?

It's all down to the shear amount of hands dealt online in a short space of time compared to live poker.

And by the way, VARIANCE affects every single player, even Phil Ivey has had million $ swings up and down, and if it hits him, believe me it will hit you too, variance is a fact of poker, accept it and move on, all you can do is maximise your win rate, and lose less than you win overall, and that is done by good bankroll management, and improving your game constantly.
Poker profit = hard work, dedication, + education, there are no shortcuts!!!

[kimmybrown]

This has been an interesting thing to read about. I just hoped that things would work out very well in the long run for this one.
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