re: Is Poker Stars cheating ?

WCICOM · 2006-08-02, 18:06

That depends on what you define as " cheating ", giving someone a wining hand with their knoledge would definatly qualify, I dont think that this kind of cheating is taking place, are the cards totaly random? I dont beleive that either. I have been playing on Poker Stars for 2 years now, and noticed that I have adjusted to the way the site deals cards instead of a real Poker game. I have 100,000 hands that I played in my database, and one thing that is very consistent, is that pocket AA has appeared 22% less tha any other pocket pair, and 40% less than pocket TT and KK.
The reason behind this is simple, nothing generates more Tilt calls than an Ace in hand, Site needs that Ace to drop, hence less of them to go arround, and that is what Poker sites need, more action, if skill alone prevailed in online Poker, PS would not have 100,000 players online during peak periods, maybe more like 10,000, Good players would dominate and the others would simply get tired of loosing money.

There is definatly such a thing as an " Action flop " it means exactly what it says, to generate action, during a period of playing for a few hours at a table, I will see 7-8 flops like 9 10 J off suit, ( pay attention to this one, it is almost neber suited, because that would be a very scarry flop for most hands. ) if you will pay attention, the turn card is very seldom the one that does not fit the flop, in other words, most of the time the turn will be a card that will create more action for the rest of that hand, it will either continue Straight possibility or pair up another card, or drop 3rd suited card. Unfortunately, I find my self guessing correctly on a lot of Action flops, which range of cards will most likely be next. My partner at the office plays on Poker Stars also, and when I shared my thinking with him, he called me an idiot, and I told that I will sit next to him for an hour while he plays and once I recognize " Action Flop " will tell him a range of 3 possible turn cards that will drop. There was 8 Action flops during that period, and I correctly predicted 7 of them, not particular card, but possible 3 or 4 cards that will come out.

Every week, PS shows their TLB leader for the week, also, who won the big event on Sunday. It is always a 18-22 year old guys. Is it because during their short lives they have accumilated so much Poker playing knoledge ? doubtfull, I think the reason is that they have found a way, with all the technology available today for Online Poker, to give them self a small edge in trying to guesstimate the way the cards come out, and look for randomness of the way the computer deals cards.

I was a floor trader for a while, and with Technological revolution, " Black Boxes " started appearing more and more, it is a program that takes in consideration a million different thingS and makes a dession in a split second what trade to make, I beleive similar types of programs are being used in online Poker.

There are definatly many bad beats in a Live game also, the difference are not " Bad Beats " the difference is setting a stage for more Action and leveling the playing field somewhat.

HOPE I DID NOT BORE YOU TOO MUCH WITH MY OBSERVATIONS, BUT I FOUND MY SELF PLAYING MORE PROFFITABLE POKER WHEN I STARTED IDENTIFYING " ACTION FLOPS" AND MAKING DESISION BASED ON MY HAND HOW TO PROCEED.

harleydanger · 2006-08-04, 20:39

Post your Stats....

1) 100,000 isn't that great a sample, considering you should've only got pairs about 5900 times with aces about 450 times. Not the largest sample size to start drawing conclusions on such rare hands.

2) Why would PS risk their entire operation of millions a day, just to maybe increase the rake profit by 5%. A disgruntled employee could destroy the entire industry with one phone call. Think of the risk v reward for them.

WCICOM · 2006-08-04, 20:50

That's the whole idea, to have a 100,000 people online and not 10,00, where 5% is a lot more attractive. Also, there is not much risk or wrong doing here, they are not showing any favoritism, just seting the stage for action junkies that live of catching one hand here and there

harleydanger · 2006-08-04, 20:54

Do you think anyone would play there if it came out that they'd been rigging the flop, starting hands or river cards?

Is that what you're saying.

The risk to them is huge, the whole business relies on thier good name.

The more you play off line, the more you'll relise PS isn't rigged

WCICOM · 2006-08-04, 21:10

First of all, maybe 100,000 hands is not a huge sample, but considering that it's AA that is not coming up often enough, ( which by the way I was sure will be the case before I started keeping track ), and also considering that every other pair is in line, I think there is something to it.
The difference is just too great. not 5 or 10% but 30-40 %.

Who can prove the stats are wrong or inacurate, when I wrote to them 6 months ago, asking if they have any kind of data showing how accurate their dealing of cards is, they sent me to a website ( from 2002 ) showing a data for 1 million hands that 3rd party Company tracked for them, The data was according to that Company with in 3% of real live dealing, they explained the difference to the fact that no software can completely imitate live dealing. So why not have 3-5% of action flops build in to the system? Since evryone knows it's not a 100% accurate anyway.

harleydanger · 2006-08-04, 21:16

Listen, i could give you 100 good reasons why its not rigged, but i'll never change your mind, there is no point arguing it.

Your wrong, I'm sorry.

Are you showing a profit over your 100k of hands?

WCICOM · 2006-08-04, 21:21

Yes, I am showing a profit, as far as being wrong, maybe, I just wanted to make my particular stats public. Out national TV stations, can for the most part, predict election outcome based on 2% of the votes in, I doubt it very much that I will get pocket AA 50 more times over the next 100,000 hands. But, we will have to wait and see.
Thanks for your thoughts.

harleydanger · 2006-08-04, 21:27

How many times have you recieved bullets?

Neo · 2006-08-05, 11:50

Quote:

I just wanted to make my particular stats public.

Ok, Then make them public. I think we are waiting to see the stats. harleydanger has asked you for your stats so I assume he is waiting as well.

Neo

raiser · 2006-08-07, 15:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by harleydanger

2) Why would PS risk their entire operation of millions a day, just to maybe increase the rake profit by 5%. A disgruntled employee could destroy the entire industry with one phone call. Think of the risk v reward for them.

yup. Before Enron, the accountants had said the same.

Quote:

Originally Posted by harleydanger

The more you play off line, the more you'll relise PS isn't rigged

lol. I would be more suspicious about the live game than on-line. Of course we don't talk about televised MTTs with lights everywhere and profi delears. Bud I wouldn't relly that everything on the local shadowed table with a half-blinded dealer is fair.
You have to pay attention when playing live. Like with any other acctivity which involves money...