Making a living from online poker?

[BetCollector]

"A good return for limit is 2BB/100 - this actually a very good return, anything above it says you're a damn good player."

This confuses me a bit.. Let's say I'm playing a 5/10 limit game.. you're saying that over 100 hands if I make $20 I'm doing good?

That just can't be right...

Over a large number of hands it's correct. You might make $1000 one session and loose $980 the next. But over many thousands of hours/hands your BB/100 should average out to >= 2BB/100 for a good player.

As you move up limits this will probably decline, I know players who crushed lower limits up to 10/20 but find themselves running around 1-1.5BB/100 at say 30/60.

And, if you multitable this number will drop, for every table you add, you will lose some edge. Of course, you want to increase your overall win-rate so the actual amount you win per hour should still increase (as you play more hands) even though your BB/100 drops.

[swapraguswap]

BetCollector is right on the mark. A couple things to keep in mind:

1. BB/100 takes quite a long time in terms of convergence. Even 50k,100k hands in, we could still be something like +/- 3BB/100 from the true win rate.

I have close to 200k recorded right now, and I'm running about a 3.42 between 2/4 and 3/6 (short table). Until I hit at least another couple hundred thousand hands, I'm not even comfortable with that number.

2. 10/20 is a usually a different beast all together. This is usually the limit you're first introduced to low limit grinders, solid pros that 4-6 tables, gamblers, and those taking a shot from the lower limits. If you can hit 2BB/100 at this level, you're doing great. I think at the 6 max, it's possible to sustain a little better if you are good at table selection. Personally, I prefer 5 tabling the lower limit shorts.

3. Take a look at your Standard Deviation numbers. Not only can you run Risk of Ruin calculations, but figure out what you +/- should be 65,95,99 percent of the time. Like #1, if you don't have a significant amount of hands, the #s will probably be way off, but good for pattern searching.

4. Bankroll - Have a bankroll for at least 1000x BB if you're doing this professionally. This does not include money for bills etc.. Yes, I understand with the right variance, and a decent win rate, 300BB is usually sufficient. Yet, if this is your ONLY means, you want to protect yourself.

There's so much more (I'm learning each day myself) but that'll get you started. As for me, I work 15 hours a week as an adjunct professor and spend 35 hours a week playing cards.

[TheLamb]

I can't be bothered to go back and look for it but whoever said that SnGs are for loosers has no idea!

I mainly play $22 SnGs and am picking up about a 40% ROI. That helps me to make about $1000 p/month as a side income (very handy).

SnGs have a very standard strategy and if you are skilled enough and disciplined enough to stick to that stratergy they are fairly easy to beat. Yes you will get unlucky from time to time and finish outside the money but you'll finish in it more often than not!

That said I also play NL $10 (as I want to get into cash games) and have a return of 18bb/100, I only have about 1300 hands but still a good start.

I plan to keep playing these until I have about 10,000 hands and then if I am still making a similar return go up to NL $25 and then move up again once I have 10,000 hands at that limit (if i'm still winning).

NL has bigger variance but bigger returns (in my opinion) and therefore as long as you are playing within your roll then it should be ok. Also 4 tabling can help keep variance at bay.

[Kozzmic]

I prefer NL these days. I have 10s of thousands of limit games under my belt, but I have come to the conclusion I just can't take the huge amount of variance you can encounter in limit. In NL at least you can modify your betting patterns to try and combat a bad run. In limit the bad runs can be absolutely brutal and there is little you can do about it except watch as hand after hand after hand is beaten by inferior holdings.

There is no doubt however that NL is a world apart from limit and requires a much larger knowledge base. It is also much more demanding on your attention. Where limit can get almost mechanical, NL is anything but. Dividends will be paid for every hand you pay close attention to even when you are not in the hand, making mult tabling difficult, unless you don't mind a marked reduction in the quality of your play.

One last thing, if you play limit do yourself a favor and don't use a cordless mouse. They are way too handy when you lose the 15th str8 hand to a draw out

[raiser]

Originally Posted by Kozzmic

I just can't take the huge amount of variance you can encounter in limit.

What was your standard deviation for limit? My actual std. dev. is 63BB/hour (NL).
I'm comfortable with it though.
I think the main difference is you have a greater edge = more BB/hour = you make enough to beat the variance.

[Kozzmic]

No doubt you will make enough in limit poker to make up for the variance if you're good. This is true of any game which is a combination of skill and luck. In fact the skill/luck ratio is just another way of saying how much variance you can expect from a game. In the the case of limit poker, you simply don't have that much of an edge. Play is mechanical, very little bluffing etc. Which means if you hit a very bad run you are pretty much helpless. In NL however the skill/luck ratio is much bigger. There are many things you can do if you hit a bad streak, especailly since the blinds are somewhat small compared to the typical preflop raise you can tighten up considerably if you want. Or you can increase aggression to stop people from drawing out.

So yes you can make money at limit, ( I made lots at 5 10 before switching to NL) however if you value your cordless mice (I have not exploded one against the wall since switching) and you put in the considerable extra effort it takes to get good at it, you will do even better at NL.

PS. I quit Limit after a particularly bad run at 5 10, and i mean a mind bender. I lost so many str8, flush, boats etc to insane catches I couldn't even keep count, and although the amount I lost during this time was significan't, it still was a small part of what I had won up to that point. I had always had trouble dealing with the smaller runs of bad luck, and this one just put me over the edge.

[raiser]

Originally Posted by Kozzmic

No doubt you will make enough in limit poker to make up for the variance if you're good.

Hey, Kozzmic, why everybody thinks the EV and variance is the most secret thing in their life?
I don't feel shame for them:
EV 18BB/hour
std 63 BB/hour
EV 42BB/100hnds
I know there are better NL players (especially at these levels). But I don't care.
What's yours? Mainly the LIMIT stats are in my own line (I don't have sufficient data and I wonder what the usual EV/std is.)

Originally Posted by Kozzmic

There are many things you can do if you hit a bad streak ... you can tighten up considerably if you want.

I don't adjust my game to cards. Only to players. Once when I lost 5 stacks consecutively on one table, one idiot even wrote to the chat "raiser LEAVE LEAVE LEAVE". Idiot.
I ended up break even on that table that night (most of that they thought I'm unbelievably unlucky soul and called me down with everything )
Play your A game everytime and it pays off. There's no luck and future cards are independent on the previous cards.

Originally Posted by Kozzmic

Or you can increase aggression to stop people from drawing out.

That's why I raise with middle pair if checked to me (my most profitable action on the flop btw).
There's allways a moron calling with gutshot or sometning else. And with a middle pair you know where you are so no tough laydowns if someone fires back...


BTW. Kozzmic - is it the "Hero" from Walt Dysney? (Donald Duck?)

[Kozzmic]

Hey, Kozzmic, why everybody thinks the EV and variance is the most secret thing in their life?

First of all I don't know why you call it EV, which normally stands for expected value and is a measure of how well any particular hand can be expected to perform. But a Win rate of 2-5 BB/100 hands is considered to be about as well as anyone could be expected to do over many hands for limit. For NL probably 2-3 times that. You will need several hundred thousand hands though before it really has much meaning.

I don't adjust my game to cards. Only to players.

Well of course you adjust your game to cards. Or are you saying you never even bother to look at your hole cards? And just as you modify what you will do based on your hole cards, so should you modify your game based on how the previous 50 hands has gone. Everyone has had a day where they lose every hand they get, It would be foolish to keep losing the maximum instead of realizing you are in the middle of a very bad run and the bigger the hole you dig now. the bigger hole you are going to have to crawl out of when the bad run is over.

[JohnDoe]

And just as you modify what you will do based on your hole cards, so should you modify your game based on how the previous 50 hands has gone. Everyone has had a day where they lose every hand they get, It would be foolish to keep losing the maximum instead of realizing you are in the middle of a very bad run and the bigger the hole you dig now. the bigger hole you are going to have to crawl out of when the bad run is over.

So you think you should adjust your playing style because you suspect that you are in the middle of a bad beat period? This is IMHO simply the worst thing you could do. If you have played your hands optimally (which I hope you are at least striving to do) there is no reason to adjust your style because you have been drawn out on the last 50 or 500 hands. Then it is better to just take a break from playing poker completely, because this will otherwise ensure you to generate your own losing streak.

[raiser]

Originally Posted by Kozzmic

a Win rate of 2-5 BB/100 hands is considered to be about as well as anyone could be expected to do over many hands for limit.

so what's yours? And what's yours variance (that's what I'm concerned about the most).

Originally Posted by Kozzmic

For NL probably 2-3 times that.

Right for middle stakes. But I know players that have over 50BB/100 (micro stakes NL of course). I was told the 15 is sustainable for middle NL stakes. And around 10 for the high stakes (except the one highest).

Originally Posted by Kozzmic

You will need several hundred thousand hands though before it really has much meaning.

Sorry dude, maybe once more I'm gona be arrogant but I successfully managed a Special School.
With extended mathematic education
So I know what I am doing (on the math field):
Probability: winrate min - winrate max (per hour - if you want per 100hnds multiply by 2.5 - but I don't have the variance for bb/100 stats)
98%: 2-30.5 bb/hour
95%: 4.25-28.25 BB/hour (I'm virtually sure my winrate is between 4 and 28 BB/hour)
90%: 6.18-26.32 BB/hour
85%: 7.43-25.07 BB/hour
80%: 8.40-24.10 BB/hour
75%: 9.21-23.29 BB/hour
70%: 9.90-22.60 BB/hour
65%: 10.53-21.97 BB/hour
60%: 11.10-21.40 BB/hour
55%: 11.62-20.88 BB/hour
50%: 12.12-20.38 BB/hour (it's fifty:fifty my winrate is between 12.12 and 20.38 BB/hour)

Originally Posted by Kozzmic

And just as you modify what you will do based on your hole cards, so should you modify your game based on how the previous 50 hands has gone.

No even you shouldn't but even you must not! The thing you are talking about (adjust to your "bad streak") is called "tilt".

Originally Posted by Kozzmic

Everyone has had a day where they lose every hand they get,

No. Noone has a bad/good day. Only sometimes some people think so.
There no such a thing as "luck" or "bad day".

Originally Posted by Kozzmic

It would be foolish to keep losing the maximum instead of realizing you are in the middle of a very bad run and the bigger the hole you dig now.

No, the future cards are independent on the previous ones.
BTW. when I lose big, I'm kind (or silent) on the fish and hope they don't leave (so I can win back their huge stacks).


Hey, Kozzmic you feel shame for your nick-name or why don't you tell me what the "Kozzmic" stands for?
Or was I right and you just feel shame for reading/watching Donald Duck?
It's a great comic and when I have enough money to toss them around I'm gonna buy back all the comics I've lost since my parents refused to finance it further