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Old 2006-07-27, 21:01   #21 (permalink)
Kozzmic
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So you think you should adjust your playing style because you suspect that you are in the middle of a bad beat period? This is IMHO simply the worst thing you could do. If you have played your hands optimally (which I hope you are at least striving to do) there is no reason to adjust your style because you have been drawn out on the last 50 or 500 hands. Then it is better to just take a break from playing poker completely, because this will otherwise ensure you to generate your own losing streak.
Well although I agree in theory with your proposition, in practice it is simply wrong. I have played well over a million hands of on line poker, and and there are times when things just go wrong and in fact at times it actually becomes somewhat predictable. I agree that most may not even be able to perceive it, and certainly it simplifies your play when you just continue to blindly play exactly the same way even though you are losing hand after hand, but in my world this is what sepeperates the very good from the good. Anyone can win when they get good cards. Very few can lose a minimum when the cards are simply your enemy. Now if it simplifies your world to play the same way regardless then by all means do it. But as for me I am always happy when I come out the other side of a bad streak with my stack still intact and don't have to worry about making up for losses that would have been easy to avoid if I had simply paid attention to run and not just the cards.
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Old 2006-07-27, 21:41   #22 (permalink)
Kozzmic
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Sorry dude, maybe once more I'm gona be arrogant but I successfully managed a Special School.
With extended mathematic education
So I know what I am doing (on the math field):
Probability: winrate min - winrate max (per hour - if you want per 100hnds multiply by 2.5 - but I don't have the variance for bb/100 stats)
98%: 2-30.5 bb/hour
95%: 4.25-28.25 BB/hour (I'm virtually sure my winrate is between 4 and 28 BB/hour)
Sorry to burst your bubble but that's a pretty wide range. Perhaps you get a few more hands you can narrow that down a bit, which was my point.

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No even you shouldn't but even you must not! The thing you are talking about (adjust to your "bad streak") is called "tilt".
This is simply dogma. I have over a million hands of on line play. Well I won't repeat myself here just read my prior post. I will just add that you're advice is good for the vast majority of players. But for me It is a workable strategy that has saved me countless times from digging a hole. And I can assure you I don't go on tilt.

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. Noone has a bad/good day. Only sometimes some people think so.There no such a thing as "luck" or "bad day".
No, the future cards are independent on the previous ones.
BTW. when I lose big, I'm kind (or silent) on the fish and hope they don't leave (so I can win back their huge stacks).
Blah Blah Blah Blah. You have no idea how simplistic this sounds to me. But once again I will concede it is the best strategy for those in the great hump (see bell curve). But please don't presume that because it is the best strategy for most that it is the best strategy for all. I have long since moved on from such simplistec drivel.

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Hey, Kozzmic you feel shame for your nick-name or why don't you tell me what the "Kozzmic" stands for?
I have no idea what you are talking about with donald duck and all. I was not evern aware that there was a character with this name since I never really like Donald Duck even as child. But you seem quite facinated with my name so I will oblige. The name is taken from the first computer I ever built in 70s. When I wrote my first simple program and got it to run on this machine, it had a profound affect on me. The future flashed before my eyes and I knew then that this simple machine would transform the world. Naturally I have never forgotten the name. That and the natural connotation that Cosmic has to the consideration of all things, It seemed a perfect name considering my style of poker. So much for your Donald duck theory.
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